SORTING OUT THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE

Why McCain is behind:

There’s no question the election is about the economy. There’s also no question voters don’t have a ton of confidence that McCain can handle this particular crisis. I say this because before the Wall Street meltdown, McCain was ahead in most national and swing state polls. Now he’s behind, simple as that. The economy was never his area of expertise. It’s what Mitt Romney pounded him on during the primaries. It didn’t work for Romney because the economy wasn’t as big an issue back then. It’s front and center now. Also, McCain’s handling of the bailout deal was shaky at best and he didn’t pick a Vice President that covers his weakness in this area. While most of Middle America can relate to Sarah Palin, she hasn’t shown she knows how to get them out of this crisis, which is what McCain really needed this past month.

McCain has also failed to separate himself in certain areas where Obama might be vulnerable. He took a passive approach to the bailout when he should have been aggressive and angry like the American people. He’s failed to effectively communicate the difference of philosophy between himself and Obama, especially in each of the three debates (McCain may have won the last one, but it didn’t result in a bump in the polls so in the end it didn’t seem help). “My opponent thinks the government needs to be more involved in your life, I don’t. I think you can do a better job yourself, but I’ll make sure government is more efficient at the things it does do over the next four years.” That should have been his central theme. It’s what he’s saying just much simpler for people to understand. Coming off a financial meltdown that proved how inefficient government really is, that would have been an effective central theme.

Some McCain supporters don't seem to understand that there's a certain percentage of the country that actually wants the Obama handouts. They don’t care that he’ll take money from wealthier American’s who might have worked hard to earn it. They’re working hard too and they want the check. America may have the greatest healthcare system in the world, but the people that can’t afford it certainly don’t think so. They want the government to give them healthcare, any healthcare. Personal responsibility and a hard work ethic are diminishing in today’s culture. It’s no surprise there’s some out there who would rather have the government help them through life than do things on their own. McCain will never win those votes. In fact, he shouldn’t even try.

Why Obama hasn’t locked it up:

Here’s a one-word explanation, uncertainty. First, let’s deal with the associations. Reverend Wright and Bill Ayers are both people most American’s would never associate with, period. Most American’s also found it hard to believe that Obama could have as many dealings as he did with those two individuals and never know their true beliefs about this country. Does Obama have the same beliefs as Wright and Ayers? Probably not. However, his associations bring into question his judgment. They also distance him from the average American who has never dealt with, on any level, someone who has bombed anything. Luckily, for Obama people are more worried about their bank accounts than who he’s “palled around with” and some will give him a pass.

The biggest thing Obama has going for him is the fact that people aren’t better off now than they were a few years ago. While the democrats have been in Congress the past two years, the blame lies with President Bush and the Republicans who’ve been running things for six of the past eight years. For McCain its guilt by association, for Obama it’s the biggest thing he has going for him. It goes hand-in-hand with his theme of change. The economy hasn’t been great under a republican president, but it was under democrat Bill Clinton. Therefore, some are concluding that its possible Obama can do better. Many seem to be willing to give him that shot.  

On the other hand, there are man y people in this country who oppose his idea of “sharing the wealth”. While personal responsibility isn’t promoted nearly as much as it should be, lots of American’s still believe individuals need to work hard and live their own lives. They don’t believe the government has the right to take their money and spread it around wherever they see fit. They also question the manner in which that wealth is spread. Then there’s the question of waste and fraud in big government programs. The lack of accountability we see all the time in Washington and state capitols gives people pause before doling out any more of their hard-earned money. Many in Middle America think that Washington spends enough and certainly shouldn’t be spending more when everyone else in this country has to cut back. Entitlements aren’t for everyone because they usually don’t go to everyone.

Finally, Obama hasn’t been able to close the deal because of inexperience. While it doesn’t play as big a factor as it did before the financial crisis hit, people are nervous to put the country in the hands of someone who doesn’t have much on the resume. There’s a risk factor with this pick and it may come down to how much people want to gamble with things continuing to get worse. The economy is the main issue in this election, but people are still concerned about world events and the two wars we continue to fight. Most people either have someone in the armed forces or know someone who has been there. While it may not be the deciding factor, it’s certainly something people keep in the back of their minds when sizing the two candidates up.

MCCAIN: THE VOTE THAT MAY COST HIM THE ELECTION

While the financial crisis is hitting most people in their 401k's, it's hitting John McCain in the polls. A month ago McCain had a lead in most national and swing state surveys. Now he's behind and time is running out.

The biggest mistake of the campaign would have been the biggest gamble as well. McCain should have voted AGAINST the bailout bill. He's been unable to create enough positive separation from Barack Obama on economic issues, specifically the current crisis we're in. Both have been supporting similar policies on how to deal with the economy, with the exception of a few differences on taxes. However, if McCain had voted against the bill he would have been on the opposite side of Obama but on the same side as the American people who still overwhelmingly oppose it.

McCain constantly states that he's a "maverick" and is against earmarks and pork. This bill was filled with so-called "goodies" that should have never been in there in the first place. In voting against it, he would have showed the American people he's a man of his word and that's what they can expect from him as president. He could have called for the end of campaign contributions to committee members from financial institutions they are supposed to oversee (Example: Senator Dodd). He could have fought for a guarantee that if any money is made from this bailout, that money will be sent directly back to the people in the form of a stimulus check. He could have immediately assured everyone that he would select the toughest people he could find to go after the Wall Street CEO's that helped get us into this mess (Example: Rudy Giuliani). He could have promised tougher regulations on the hedge funds that are playing the market and creating an unfair game. He could have fought harder for the very things that Main Street was concerned about.

Instead McCain stopped his campaign, something that was widely viewed as nothing more than a stunt, and did little to differentiate himself from his opponent. He's failed to effectively communicate his positions on the economy in a clear enough way so that the American people understand what he'll do to fix it. If McCain goes on to lose this race he should look back at the bailout vote and ask himself if the Maverick would have done the same thing the candidate did. The answer is probably not.

THE FINAL PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE

The pressure was on McCain to perform better than the past two showdowns while Obama simply had to get through the night relatively mistake-free. Here's what I said each candidate had to accomplish:

Obama

1. Don't mess up. Sounds simple but as we've seen in this campaign, anything can happen. No major gaffes tonight means there's a good chance Obama will head into the final stretch with the lead.

2. Everything should be focused around "change". Change the direction of the economy, change our relationship with the rest of the world, change the culture in Washington, etc. He should make that point that he's the right person to fix Washington because he hasn't been there very long. Use the "inexperience" to his advantage. Remember, people don't like Washington insiders right now.

3. Simplify and personalize. No big numbers and figures. Focus more on stories like the one about his dying mother and her fights with the big insurance companies. Those are relate-able stories that make people feel like he understands their problems. Very effective.

McCain

1. Pledge to serve one term. It's bold and would be the headline of the debate. Explain that only having 4 years to fix these problems adds a sense of urgency to get things done immediately.

2. Announce choices for Attorney General, SEC Chairman, Treasury Secretary and a special investigator to look into the reasons Wall Street is in so much trouble. Pledge to protect nobody, including fellow members of Congress, even if they are of the same party. Also pledge that some will be prosecuted when the investigation is complete.

3. Give specific examples of programs that will be cut when elected. The generic answers don't work when you're behind this late in the race. Plus it will make McCain look decisive and knowledgeable.

4. Simplify and personalize for the same reasons listed above under Obama's keys to victory.

5. Stay away from the Obama associations. If a confrontation on this takes place that will make headlines instead of the more important things that need to be remembered. Focus on how you've "surrounded yourself with good and decent people" but don't take the shot at Obama.

6. Show passion and anger at what the country is going through. Don't be afraid of the Democrats or media labeling you as "angry" because on this issue the American people are furious.

While it was McCain's best debate he didn't do many of the things I suggested. Based on your calls my suggestions were things you were also hoping to see. Therefore his performance was better but not as good as it needed to be. Obama didn't do anything great but didn't mess up either. The polls have stayed the same since the debate. Going forward only events outside of McCain's control will be able to swing the election back in his direction. I'm not saying that can't happen, but I certainly don't think that's the position McCain wants to be in. The final debate was a missed opportunity to turn things around.